**Key Takeaways**
**Is BTC strong right now?**
Yes. Long-term holders (LTHs) remain in profit, and Bitcoin is holding near $110K.
**Will trader confidence return to the market?**
Slowly. Leverage is creeping back on Binance, but full speculation hasn’t returned yet.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading near $110K, with long-term holders sitting on solid gains and leverage gradually returning on Binance (BNB). Traders view this movement as largely psychological, with the $113K level serving as a critical point that could either trigger a breakout or result in another round of resistance-driven selling.
### Long-Term Holders Show No Signs of Stress
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders remains firmly in positive territory, indicating that most holders are still sitting on significant unrealized profits. This metric is commonly used as a proxy for market confidence among seasoned investors.
Despite some recent price volatility around $110K, data suggests that long-term conviction remains strong. For LTHs to face real financial pressure, Bitcoin would need to drop below $37K—a level not seen since early 2024. Their current positioning acts as a psychological buffer, reducing the risk of panic selling within the current price range.
### Are We in a Late Cycle Phase?
The ratio of LTH to short-term holder (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has been trending downward, signaling that LTHs are reducing their selling activity while STHs continue locking in profits. Such divergence is often observed near cycle peaks, such as those seen in late 2021 and mid-2017.
With the ratio near its historical lower bound, it’s evident that LTHs are exercising restraint, allowing STHs to dominate short-term price movements. This dynamic may lead to a brief speculative upswing before broader market momentum resets, echoing patterns from previous high-volatility phases.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s STH Realized Price currently sits just below $100K, serving as a key short-term support zone. As long as BTC stays above this level, STHs remain in profit, keeping near-term sentiment relatively stable. However, a drop below this threshold could lead to sharper corrections.
### Leverage Is Slowly Returning
Leverage activity on Binance has been gradually increasing after a sharp decline in mid-October. The estimated leverage ratio rose from 0.148 to 0.166, signaling a cautious return of risk-taking behavior among traders.
This measured increase aligns with Bitcoin’s steady rebound from $104K to just above $110K, indicating that traders are testing the waters without fully committing. Unlike previous leverage spikes, this build-up is controlled, reflecting limited confidence in a near-term price surge.
The absence of heavy speculation suggests that the market is still searching for clear direction. Should Bitcoin maintain its position above $110K, trader confidence may continue to steadily improve.
https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-smart-money-holds-while-sths-test-the-waters-whats-next
