Bitcoin’s $100,000 Line Is No Longer a Victory Lap — It’s a Stress Test
Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence suggests that the current behavior of Bitcoin resembles what often occurs before a market break. While stocks remain relatively calm and volatility hovers near historic lows, Bitcoin—a digital asset known for its price swings—is surprisingly steady.
In his latest Bloomberg note, McGlone describes this phase as one of “extreme complacency.” He highlights a chart comparing Bitcoin’s 50-week moving trendline with two volatility metrics: the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500’s realized volatility. Both indicators rarely remain this subdued for long. The VIX 50-week average currently sits around 19, and McGlone warns that equities might soon “catch up,” signaling that market turbulence could be closer than traders anticipate.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been stuck near the $100,000 mark after failing to break above $110,000. McGlone dubs this situation “Do or Die” — either Bitcoin holds this level, proving its strength, or it falls back toward its long-term average near $56,000.
Historically, every major Bitcoin cycle cools off at this exact stage. It’s when the hype fades and price charts begin to show signs of “mean reversion,” reflecting a return to average values after a period of extreme performance.
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