OPEC might increase oil production a bit this November

**OPEC May Slightly Increase Oil Production in November**

*By Dwaipayan Roy | October 5, 2025, 6:41 PM*

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is reportedly close to agreeing on a minor increase in oil production for November. Delegates from key member countries indicated that they are likely to approve a boost of approximately 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), matching the increment made this month. This move aligns with OPEC’s ongoing efforts to regain its share of the global oil market.

**Market Response: Oil Prices Near Four-Month Low**

Oil prices have been hovering near a four-month low, underscoring the delicate balancing act OPEC and its allies face as they gradually reintroduce supply into an already oversupplied market. The group is currently restoring a previously halted production layer amounting to about 1.65 million bpd. This follows a larger tranche of supply recently brought back, despite the market showing resilience to the added output so far.

**Market Trends and Outlook**

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a record oil surplus in 2026, fueled by rapidly increasing inventories this quarter. Unsold Middle Eastern cargoes are accumulating, and futures markets indicate near-term weakness. The IEA attributes this prospective surplus to slowing global demand combined with surging supply from the Americas, signaling a challenging environment for producers moving forward.

**Diverging Strategies Among OPEC Leaders**

Within OPEC, there is an ongoing debate about whether to continue with the gradual production increase pace set last month or to accelerate the output growth. A divergence in views exists between the group’s co-leaders, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Saudi Arabia, which has been the most affected by the earlier production cuts now being reversed, is spearheading the push for increased output in an effort to reclaim market share.

**Capacity Constraints within OPEC**

Recent production hikes have also exposed the limits of spare capacity among OPEC members. Eight key countries have only restored around 60% of a planned 2.2 million bpd supply tranche between May and September. This partial restoration reflects not only efforts to compensate for previous overproduction but also suggests that some members may already be operating near their full capacity.

As OPEC navigates these complex market dynamics, its decisions in the coming months will be crucial for balancing supply and demand and for shaping the global oil landscape in 2026.
https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/business/opec-nearing-deal-for-minor-oil-production-increase-report/story

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