**High US Tariffs Pose Risk to India’s Growth: Crisil**
*By Akash Pandey | Sep 27, 2025, 05:01 PM*
A recent report by Crisil Intelligence highlights that the high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods could pose a significant risk to India’s economic growth. The September report emphasizes that these tariffs are likely to impact both Indian exports and investments adversely.
However, the report also points out that domestic consumption is expected to remain a key driver of growth, supported by low inflation levels and recent rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
**Economic Indicators: GDP Growth and Inflation Projections**
India’s GDP growth reached a five-quarter high of 7.8% in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025-26, up from 7.4% in the same quarter last year. Despite this, nominal GDP growth slowed to 8.8% from 10.8% during the same period in the previous year.
Crisil Intelligence projects that consumer price index (CPI) inflation will ease to 3.5% this fiscal year, down from 4.6% last year, indicating improved inflation control.
**Inflation Control: Factors Influencing Inflation Rates**
The report notes that robust agricultural growth is expected to help keep food inflation in check, although the full impact of excess rainfall remains to be assessed. Additionally, lower crude oil prices and stable global commodity prices are anticipated to contain non-food inflation.
These factors collectively are expected to play a crucial role in managing India’s inflation rates in the months ahead.
**Policy Outlook: RBI Likely to Implement One More Rate Cut**
On the monetary policy front, Crisil Intelligence predicts that the RBI will proceed with one more rate cut during this fiscal year, followed by a pause. So far, the central bank’s monetary policy committee has reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points between February and June 2025.
The RBI is currently awaiting the full transmission of these previous rate cuts before making further decisions regarding interest rates.
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India’s economic growth appears resilient despite external risks, but careful monitoring of US tariff impacts and domestic inflation will be critical in the coming fiscal year.
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